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Opinion: Guns in the US - why the NRA is so successful at preventing reform

1 June 2022

Writing in The Conversation, Dr Thomas Gift (果冻影院 Political Science) delves into why the National Rifle Association is such a powerful force in American politics and has been so successful at blocking gun regulation.

Dr Thomas Gift

In the wake of the recent school shooting in Uvalde, Texas that killed 19 children and two teachers, Democrats in the US 鈥 led by the president, Joe Biden 鈥 have once again called for stricter national gun laws. Yet many experts believe prospects for reform remain bleak, a reality attributed to the overwhelming influence of the gun lobby.

The National Rifle Association promised to 鈥渞eflect on鈥 the tragedy at its national conference in Houston, Texas, the weekend after the May 24 shooting. Several speeches 鈥 including one by Biden鈥檚 predecessor in the White House, Donald Trump 鈥 expressly addressed the incident.

But the NRA has vigorously rejected any charge that its policies contribute to America鈥檚 gun problem. Unsurprisingly, opponents of gun reform have accused the media and Democrats of 鈥減oliticising鈥 Uvalde to press an ideological agenda.

The NRA, meanwhile, has continued to advance proposals such as improving mental health responses, 鈥渉ardening鈥 schools with increased security, and potentially even arming teachers, which leaders claim (without evidence and against educators鈥 wishes) can serve as a deterrent. These recommendations align with the NRA鈥檚 longstanding message: tightening gun laws would do nothing to prevent mass shootings in schools.

All of this is occurring as the NRA feels more emboldened with the renewed 鈥渃ulture war鈥 focus sweeping America. Although not entirely new, many GOP lawmakers are leveraging gun ownership as part of a 鈥減ackage deal鈥 鈥 along with what they portray as leftist issues such as trans rights and critical race theory 鈥 to animate conservative voters. So, instead of the recent spate of shootings causing the NRA to back way from its uncompromising positions, it has instead doubled down.

The NRA publishes an A-F rating of lawmakers that grades elected officials on their voting records with respect to the second amendment, which guarantees the rights of Americans to bear arms. The formula is simple: supporting looser gun regulations earns a higher grade, whereas making it harder to access guns earns a lower grade. For Republicans from conservative districts, where guns are embedded deeply into the culture, any grade below a perfect A+ can hobble a politician鈥檚 electoral prospects.

Perhaps most importantly, the NRA also flexes its muscles by unseating incumbent politicians directly at the ballot box. If Republicans (or moderate Democrats) waver on the gun issue, the NRA will 鈥 particularly in the primaries 鈥 pour money and resources into the campaigns of opponents who back more lax gun mandates. Even the threat of that challenge is often enough to intimidate many politicians from defying the NRA鈥檚 agenda.

Lastly, the NRA also maintains a large, deep-pocketed lobbying arm in Washington that鈥檚 involved in pressuring members of Congress to resist any legislation that might be construed as even mildly anti-gun. In the first quarter of 2022, for example, the NRA spent well over US$600,000 (nearly 拢500,000) on lobbying. That number is only expected to increase in the second half of this year amid the 2022 midterm elections as well as renewed demands for gun reform by liberals.

Data shows that slightly more than 50% of Americans want tighter gun control laws overall. Support is even higher for outlawing assault-style weapons (favoured by 63%), for prohibiting 鈥渉igh capacity鈥 magazines (64%), and for imposing background checks on private gun sales and purchases at gun shows (81%). Although partisan divides exist, even many rank-and-file NRA members think some gun legislation should be on the table.

Still, these figures can be misleading, for a simple reason: they don鈥檛 reveal anything about how important Americans feel gun law reform is compared with other pressing issues. When polls ask Americans what the most important problem is that their country faces, virtually no one 鈥 often fewer than 1% 鈥 ranks guns at the top of that list. So, it鈥檚 one thing for voters to say that they support stricter gun laws in the abstract, but it鈥檚 another to actually prioritise the issue at the ballot box.

It鈥檚 an iron law of governing: politics involves trade-offs. Because other policy areas such as immigration or the economy rank higher in the minds of voters, politicians don鈥檛 expend scarce political capital on guns. This provides space for a pressure organisation such as the NRA, with its concentrated interests around the gun issue, to have huge sway over how lawmakers set the policy agenda and vote. That鈥檚 true both at the state and federal levels in America.

After a mass school shooting, it鈥檚 natural to think that 鈥渢his time is different鈥. We heard that after Columbine in 1999, after Sandy Hook in 2012, after Parkland in 2018. Now we鈥檙e hearing it again after Uvalde.

The outrage is palpable and it鈥檚 hard not to think the culmination would move the needle in the direction of reform. The reality? Expect the status quo.

At least 60 votes are still needed to usher any legislation through the Senate and avoid a 鈥渇ilibuster鈥, which allows lawmakers to stall or prevent a vote on bills. Even apart from the NRA鈥檚 clout, a major challenge is that the gun control movement is subject to what political scientists label an 鈥渋ssue attention cycle鈥. In short, focus on the issue is fleeting. A calamity like the one in Texas gets considerable press for a while but then fades into the backdrop and is replaced by other headlines. The sustained political will needed to pass gun reform simply doesn鈥檛 persist.

For all the horror mass shootings, most gun violence in America occurs through a 鈥渟low drip鈥 of casualties. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that more than 45,000 Americans died from gun-related causes in 2020, with about 43% being homicides.

But according to the Gun Violence Archive, only about 1% of these victims 鈥 just over 500 Americans 鈥 died in mass shootings. Most of those deaths never make national news, and regrettably, are too often ignored by the nation鈥檚 leaders.

This article was originally published in听on 1听June, 2022.听

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