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Opinion: What do the people of Ukraine want?
2 March 2022
The Ukrainian people do not want war, but the vast majority feel a strong connection to their home country, writes Professor Kristin Bakke (果冻影院 Political Science).
Russian forces are now attacking both military and civilian targets in Ukraine.听The war is driven by President Vladimir Putin's Greater Russia ambitions, a (poor) history reading that听does not recognise Ukraine, and听frustration听that the country's leadership has turned west instead of looking to Moscow.
The goal is to deprive the Ukrainian people of the right to decide for themselves the country's political future.
The Ukrainians - led by a president who has now achieved听a heroic status听Putin can look back on - have so far proved more difficult to fight than most had anticipated.
There has been a lot of focus on the great power policy behind the war, but it is the Ukrainian people who are in the firing line.听It is first and foremost their future that is at stake.
So what do we know about how the Ukrainians view Russia and NATO?
The Ukrainian people value their independence highly.听Yet many looked long on their Russian neighbor with positive emotions (almost 90 percent in 2008), though not necessarily the Russian leadership.
Surveys by the听Kyiv International Institute of Sociology听show that these attitudes cooled among many after Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for the separatists in the Donbas, a conflict that has claimed nearly 14,000 lives.
After the Crimean annexation in 2014, the Ukrainian authorities wanted to get closer to NATO, but among the people, the view of NATO has been divided.
A survey we conducted听in December 2019听showed that 44 percent would have supported NATO membership.听But when we asked if they wanted NATO forces in the country, only a quarter were supportive.
We also asked what people would think about military cooperation with Russia, but there was less enthusiasm for it.听About a quarter said they would have supported military cooperation, while only four percent would have Russian forces on Ukrainian soil.听About half preferred neutrality.
Recent studies show that people in Ukraine have been more positive towards NATO over time.听Data from听February 2021听showed that a majority (56 percent) would have supported NATO membership.听This was before Russian forces stood on the borders.
In听December 2021,听after the Russian mobilization was underway, almost 60 percent would have supported NATO membership.
There is regional variation in people's attitudes.听The population in the western and central provinces is more oriented towards the West than that in the east and south.
Attitudes are also different in the Russian-backed separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where the Kyiv authorities have no control.
A study we did there听in 2020听, showed that about half of the population would be part of Russia.听A recent study from听January 2022听shows that for more than half of the听war听-torn population in the Donbas, everyday economic problems are more important than which country they live in.
Now the war has also reached the rest of Ukraine.听The people do not want war, but the vast majority feel a听strong connection听to their homeland.
And as we see: They are willing to听fight听to be able to decide for themselves the future of their home country.
This article first appeared in Aftenposten on 2nd March 2022.