果冻影院

Days after what was supposed to be a victory lap for Kevin McCarthy, and Republicans still haven鈥檛 figured out who the next speaker of the House will be. The chamber had taken eleven votes as this article went to press, with no member receiving the requisite 218 ballots required to lead. Neither side seems to be budging. So Washington waits on its knees in a legislative purgatory that could stretch on for days, or weeks.

Republicans promised an obstructionist government. But they didn鈥檛 campaign on obstructing themselves. For a tiny minority of Republicans from ruby-red districts, sticking it to McCarthy has been the ultimate power play. Setting the party鈥檚 鈥渆stablishment鈥� on fire doesn鈥檛 just seem like a byproduct of the venture, more and more it looks to be the entire point.

Many experts, including former House speaker Newt Gingrich, predicted that the huffing and puffing of the anti-McCarthy camp would end with a prompt capitulation to party leadership before the first-round vote. Instead, they鈥檝e sowed mayhem. McCarthy lacked a 鈥淧lan B鈥� after offering concessions (and making threats) failed. By contrast, his rebel opponents came armed not only with a strategy 鈥� but one that鈥檚 successfully brought the House to a standstill.

While led by Trump acolytes, it鈥檚 important to stress that the anti-McCarthy campaign isn鈥檛 a Trump-led plot. If anything, it鈥檚 exposed the limits of Trump鈥檚 power. Before the first speaker vote, Trump urged Republicans to rally behind McCarthy, who is the Republican leader in the House. After the initial standoff, he posted on Truth Social: 鈥淰ote for Kevin, close the deal.鈥� However, Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, who once called Trumpism 鈥渢he greatest show on earth鈥�, dismissed the comments as 鈥渟ad鈥�. Lauren Boebert, the Trumpiest of Trump loyalists hit back: 鈥淭rump needs to tell Kevin McCarthy that sir 鈥� it鈥檚 time to withdraw.鈥�

An irony of the speaker fiasco is that it has featured extreme elements of the Republican party exerting power in the wake of the midterm elections in which their raison d鈥櫭猼re 鈥� blowing up 鈥渢he system鈥� 鈥� had been roundly rejected. The 2022 midterms were defined by nothing if not a repudiation of election-denying firebrands and extreme Make America Great Again (MAGA)-types. And yet, some of the central players in that movement, including those who made a name for themselves by defending January 6, have also played starring roles in efforts to stoke bedlam in the fight over the speaker鈥檚 gavel.

The quarrel has proven that, despite setbacks, many Republicans both in Washington and in the GOP voter base still can鈥檛 get enough of the flame-throwing. Some have radicalised even beyond the far-reaches of Trumpism. Gerrymandering, which creates safe electoral seats, coupled with primaries in which the incentive is to court the extreme fringes of the base, means that right-wing efforts to shake up Capitol Hill won鈥檛 just peter out. In the long run, the goal is 鈥渢o deal a blow against a Republican system that鈥檚 hostile to conservatives,鈥� declared Virginia Representative Bob Good.

Conventional wisdom is that the hangover from the speaker fiasco will hobble House Republicans out of the gate, limiting their ability to govern. Yet with Joe Biden in the Oval Office and a Democrat-controlled Senate, it鈥檚 worth staying clear-eyed about the reality: governing was never the plan. Instead, the priorities will remain stymieing the White House agenda and holding Biden鈥檚 feet to the fire. Here, it鈥檚 hard to argue that Republicans aren鈥檛 four-square behind bloodying the president鈥檚 nose. That will be true whoever the next speaker is.

Any hopes that Biden has of pushing through more big ticket policies are no less dead on arrival just because Republicans delayed selecting a House speaker. Moreover, few items make the whole of the GOP salivate more than probing the hard drive of the president鈥檚 son Hunter, or digging into a litany of other controversies, from the origins of COVID-19, to the crisis at the US-Mexico border, to the Pentagon鈥檚 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The speaker debacle has further bruised the reputation of Republicans. It鈥檚 exposed, more than caused, deep chasms between the 鈥渆stablishment鈥� and 鈥渦ltra-MAGA鈥� wings of the party. The rifts won鈥檛 heal overnight, and there鈥檚 likely more bad blood to come. Intra-party retribution behind the scenes seems inevitable. All of this occurred because of another humiliation 鈥� the 鈥渞ed wave that wasn鈥檛鈥� in November鈥檚 midterms 鈥� which gave McCarthy a much slimmer majority than expected.

House Democrats have been emboldened from the sidelines by watching their opponents eat their own. But it鈥檚 possible to overstate the practical consequences for governing, and to exaggerate how much Republicans are on the back foot. Gridlock will still be the watchword in Washington for two years, and no amount of Republican infighting will keep its members鈥� eyes off the prize: embarrassing Biden, retaking the White House, and regaining a majority in Congress in 2024.

This article first appeared in on 6 January 2023.听

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