果冻影院

In an episode of HBO鈥檚 Real Time in March 2023, comedian Bill Maher hit the nail on the head when describing the current debate over Donald Trump v Ron DeSantis for the Republican presidential nomination.

Conventional wisdom is that lots of voters want Trump鈥檚 policies without Trump 鈥� so Florida governor DeSantis, wrapped up in 鈥渕ore electable鈥� packaging, might appeal to the Republican base.

However, Maher asked: 鈥淲hy would [Republicans] want a tribute band when the actual band is still playing?鈥� It鈥檚 a valid question 鈥� and one that deserves an answer.

Policy-wise, there鈥檚 not much separating Trump and DeSantis. Domestically, both embrace tax cuts, conservative judges, and hardline immigration stances. On foreign policy, both are sceptical of US aid to Ukraine and want to give China a punch in the gut.

Trump leans more into his populist, anti-globalisation crusade, while DeSantis鈥檚 hallmark is his 鈥渁nti-woke鈥� stance. But in the end, both are right-leaning culture warriors who portray themselves as outside-the-Beltway antidotes to Washington鈥檚 鈥渟wamp culture鈥�.

Still, Trump and DeSantis aren鈥檛 clones. Here鈥檚 what most distinguishes the tribute band from the original.

Love or hate Trump, he鈥檚 got flair. Charisma may be too strong a word, but the reality is that he can fill a room 鈥� or a stadium 鈥� and knows just how to flatter his base. There鈥檚 a reason his cultish fans once rolled out a golden statue of him at a flagship conservative conference.

DeSantis is a chest-thumper, but in a lower-key way than Trump. His speeches tend to be briefer, more pointed, and less rambling. DeSantis sticks to the script, is less inclined to hurl insults, and is arguably more stilted on the stump.

A clear separator between Trump and DeSantis is the capacity for shock value. DeSantis can play dirty, but he hasn鈥檛 (yet) shown Trump鈥檚 penchant for pathological lying and overtly racist and misogynistic remarks. Even if he traffics in dog whistles, he鈥檚 less likely to 鈥渟ay the quiet parts out loud鈥�.

Trump and DeSantis share similar policy platforms, but there鈥檚 no mind meld. Trump is a former Democrat. He鈥檚 less ideological, more pragmatic, and seemingly more comfortable 鈥渙wning the libs鈥� than discussing the intricacies of economic or healthcare policy.

DeSantis, by contrast, is a 鈥渢rue believer鈥�. In line with his Ivy League pedigree, he鈥檚 a wonk who can go 15 rounds talking policy minutiae if needed. Whether it鈥檚 ranting about the inner workings of critical race theory or drafting a 鈥淒on鈥檛 Say Gay鈥� bill, DeSantis can get down into the weeds.

Despite 鈥� or maybe because of 鈥� his notoriously loyal base, Trump isn鈥檛 afraid to break from the right-wing straightjacket. On COVID-19, for example, Trump endured boos after praising the vaccine. DeSantis, meanwhile, towed the party line (as per usual) and earned plaudits for insisting that his home state of Florida was 鈥渙pen for business鈥�.

Trump won鈥檛 back down from the 鈥渂ig lie鈥�, maintaining that he won the 2020 election. Which brings us to a big delusion: that DeSantis poses just as much a threat to American democracy as Trump.

DeSantis may be 鈥淭rump lite鈥�. But he鈥檚 done nothing to suggest that if he lost an election, he鈥檇 spend months denying it, call on a secretary of state to 鈥渇ind votes鈥�, then whip up a crowd of bloodthirsty rioters to storm the US Capitol.

On foreign policy, DeSantis also seems less likely to cozy up to dictators. Whereas Trump regularly extolled autocrats like Vladimir Putin, DeSantis lacks the same wannabe authoritarian impulse. Still, DeSantis鈥檚 recent euphemism 鈥� calling Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine a mere 鈥渢erritorial dispute鈥� 鈥� didn鈥檛 exactly inspire confidence that he鈥檇 aggressively promote democracy abroad.

The biggest divider between Trump and DeSantis is also the most obvious: Trump was president before. He鈥檚 tested on a national stage, a known quantity, and voters realise what they鈥檙e getting when they pull the Trump lever.

At the same time, he is also a proven loser. Trump has never won the popular vote, lost in 2020, and some of his endorsed candidates fared poorly in the 2022 midterms.

DeSantis is now a household name, but it鈥檚 unclear how he鈥檒l respond under the bright lights. Plenty of Republican favourites in the past 鈥� including fellow Floridian Jeb Bush 鈥� have wilted under the pressure. DeSantis doesn鈥檛 look like a flash in the pan, but he still needs to prove himself in prime time.

Even though DeSantis is likely not to officially declare as a candidate until May, and other candidates have already announced a run, 鈥淒on v Ron鈥� dominates Republican chatter right now, and for good reason. Trump鈥檚 stranglehold over the GOP and DeSantis鈥檚 rising stardom make for a captivating battle. Yet, for now at least, it鈥檚 important to remember the race isn鈥檛 a one-on-one matchup. And it鈥檚 a long way to the first primary in February 2024.

Trump鈥檚 level of support all but guarantees him 30-40% of the party鈥檚 vote. If other Republican hopefuls split the never-Trump ballot, that gives Trump a huge edge, especially in early, winner-takes-all primary states.

This doesn鈥檛 mean 2024 is settled, far from it. The final nomination has to be decided by July that year, so there鈥檚 plenty of time for things to change. DeSantis is the new darling of Fox News, and his 鈥渟oft launch鈥� campaign has already earned plenty of major donations. But if he wants a clean shot at Trump, Republicans will need to consolidate around him, and early.

Whether the tribute band can upstage the original is still to be determined. But if Trump strums his greatest hits 鈥� from Deep State Conspiracy Blues to Waitin鈥� on a Witch Hunt 鈥� don鈥檛 be surprised if he鈥檚 the one belting out the encore.

This article first appeared in听听on 22听March 2023.听

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